Episode Details

SPI Futures up 104 points. ASX to open higher. US Futures lower on Nvidia.

Wall St bounced sharply as oil fell and bond yields retreated from multi-year highs on hopes the Iran war is nearing resolution. S&P 500 up 1.1%. Dow Jones up 645 points (+1.3%), closing back above 50,000. Nasdaq up 1.5%. Volume above average. Every sector higher except Energy, down 2.6% on the oil drop. Consumer Discretionary the standout, up 2.5%. Semis roared back - Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 4.5%.

Trump reports US-Iran negotiations are in their "final stages", which triggered a sharp drop in oil. WTI down 9.3% to $101.7. Brent down 5.1% to $105.4. Two Chinese oil tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is enforcing a multi-tier approval process for passage involving vetting and sometimes fees, so the strait is not fully open, but traffic is improving. The pattern of the last two months holds - hope, then reality. Bond markets took the Iran comments at face value. US 10Y down 8.2bp to 4.59%, US 2Y down 6.3bp. 30Y pulling back from its highest since 2007. Dollar index down 0.2%.

Nvidia delivered Q2 revenue guidance of $91bn beating the $87bn consensus. Below the highest of estimates of $96bn. Stock down after hours on comments that competition is rising. The AI infrastructure demand story remains intact and data centre revenue continued to accelerate. Nvidia also announced an $80bn buyback and raised its quarterly dividend. The market broadly got the reassurance it needed, if not the blowout some had hoped for. Nvidia rose 1.3% in the regular session. Peers AMD up 8.1%, ASML up 6.2%, Intel up 7.4%.

Oil down - Yields fall - Gold up 

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