Episode Details

Ferrari Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: BUY (4/5 conviction, STRONG) - CURRENT @ $333.79 - BUY - BUY below $320.00 with $290.00 stop - AVOID above $450.00 TRIGGER: Q2 operating margin holds above 29% AND no tariff escalation WINDOW: Through Q3 2026 earnings (November 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/RACE WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 5 Strong Buy / 8 Buy / 8 Hold / 2 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $460.00 (range $350 - $580) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: ALIGNED THESIS Ferrari is the highest-margin scaled automaker globally - 30 percent operating margin, 39 percent FCF margin, supply-constrained scarcity model with structural pricing power. Bull lever: Personalization mix continues compounding above 20 percent. Tariff overhang resolves through pricing pass-through. China demand stabilizes. Multi-year EV/F80 cycle drives ASP higher. Key risk: US tariffs enforce at 25 percent without full pass-through. China luxury demand softens further. Supply-constraint discipline breaks as growth pressure mounts. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A- (Vigna team has executed supply discipline and personalization mix expansion consistently. Capital allocation strong - buyback plus dividend, no debt-funded growth. SBC modest at 1.3 percent of revenue. Tariff provisioning is conservative and transparent.) - Earnings quality grade: A (Best-in-class cash conversion - FCF 732 million versus net income 415 million is 1.76 times. SBC negligible at 1.3 percent of revenue. Working capital release is normal seasonality. Net debt minimal relative to cash flow.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:44 The Print 1:36 The Trend 2:34 The Segments 3:26 The FCF Bridge 4:18 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 5:24 Peer Dot-Plot 6:18 Management & Earnings Quality 7:26 The Call - Verdict (price-aware + consensus) 8:17 The Call - Supporting Evidence KEY METRICS - Q1 2026 - Revenue: $1.86B (+3.7% YoY, beat estimate by 0.8%) - Adjusted EPS: $2.30 (vs $2.35 est, missed by 2.1%) - Operating margin: 29.9% - Free cash flow: $0.73B (39.4% margin) GUIDANCE FY2026 guide REAFFIRMED: revenue 7.30-7.40 billion dollars, adjusted EBIT margin 29.0-29.5 percent, EPS 9.10-9.30, free cash flow 1.45 billion. Management explicitly noted Q1 included approximately 75 million dollars of provisioning for US tariffs that may or may not be enforced - the underlying operating EPS is closer to 2.40. NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Prior call (2026-02-10 (Q4 2025 call)): "Personalization mix continues to compound as customers customize their Ferraris at unprecedented rates. We see no demand softness across any region." - Current call (2026-05-05 (Q1 2026 call)): "Q1 results reflect our highest level of personalization revenue ever at nearly 20 percent of sales. The 75 million dollar tariff provision is precautionary - we are protected by our pricing power. Demand globally including China is strong." - Sentiment shift: neutral DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Ferrari Q1 2026 Press Release (2026-05-05) - Q1 2026 Earnings Call commentary DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in RACE. Do your own research before any investment decision. #RACE #Ferrari #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha