Episode Details

Amer Sports Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: BUY (4/5 conviction, STRONG) - CURRENT @ $34.84 - BUY - BUY below $33.00 with $28.00 stop - AVOID above $45.00 TRIGGER: Q2 FY26 Arc'teryx comp sales above plus 20 percent YoY OR FY26 guide raised again on Q2 call WINDOW: Through Q3 FY2026 earnings (mid-November 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/AS WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 8 Strong Buy / 6 Buy / 3 Hold / 0 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $38.50 (range $30 - $45) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: ALIGNED, MORE BULLISH THESIS Amer Sports is the cleanest premium-brand compounder story in consumer cyclicals - Arc'teryx is the engine, Wilson is the optionality, Salomon is the kicker. Bull lever: Arc'teryx is still under-stored globally - only about 130 owned-and-operated stores versus a 400+ target. Every new store opens to over-plan productivity. The DTC mix shift compounds margin and brand equity simultaneously. Key risk: Greater China deceleration - plus 43 percent YoY this quarter is unsustainable on the math, and a return to plus 15 percent would still beat plan but would compress the multiple. The other risk is inventory: plus 240 million YoY inventory build needs to clear by Q3. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A (Jie Zheng team has delivered against every milestone since the February 2024 IPO. Disciplined Arc'teryx store rollout, no acquisitive distractions, leverage paid down ahead of schedule.) - Earnings quality grade: A- (Earnings backed by cash conversion (FCF 108M vs NI 165M = 65 percent conversion, light because of seasonal WC build). GAAP-to-adj gap small. SBC modest. Inventory build matches sales growth.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:34 The Print 1:36 The Trend 2:27 The Segments 3:05 The FCF Bridge 4:01 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 4:57 Peer Dot-Plot 5:43 Management & Earnings Quality 7:19 S8_Call KEY METRICS - Q1 2026 - Revenue: $1.95B (+32.4% YoY, beat estimate by 5.7%) - Adjusted EPS: $0.38 (vs $0.31 est, +22.6% beat; +40.7% YoY) - Gross margin: 59.9% (+210 bps YoY) - company record - Operating margin: 16.1% (+160 bps YoY) - Net income: $0.165B (+51.0% YoY) - Free cash flow: $108M (5.5% margin; Q1 seasonally light) SEGMENT BREAKDOWN - Arc'teryx (Technical Apparel): +28% YoY, 52% of revenue - Salomon (Outdoor Performance): +24% YoY, 30% of revenue - Wilson (Ball & Racquet Sports): +45% YoY, 18% of revenue - Arc'teryx Greater China: +43% YoY GUIDANCE - RAISED - FY26 sales growth: 20% to 22% (RAISED from 17-19%) - FY26 op margin: 14.0% to 14.5% - FY26 EPS growth: 33% to 38% - FY26 EPS implied: $1.35 midpoint NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Q4 FY25 call (Feb): "We expect continued momentum in Arc'teryx and gradual recovery in Wilson Ball and Racquet as channel inventories normalize" - Q1 FY26 call (May): "Wilson Ball and Racquet is no longer recovering - it is now actively contributing to growth at a rate ahead of plan" - Tone shift: defensive Wilson framing - offensive Wilson outlook raise DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Amer Sports Q1 2026 Press Release (2026-05-19) - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call commentary DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in AS. Do your own research before any investment decision. #AS #AmerSports #Arcteryx #Wilson #Salomon #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha