Episode Details

Eagle Materials Q4 FY2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: BUY (4/5 conviction, STRONG) - CURRENT @ $199.88 - BUY - BUY below $180.00 with $165.00 stop - AVOID above $250.00 TRIGGER: Cement volumes accelerate above +10% in any quarter OR Laramie commissioning on schedule end-2026 WINDOW: Through Q2 FY2027 earnings (early November 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/EXP WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 3 Strong Buy / 7 Buy / 4 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $220.00 (range $180 - $260) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: ALIGNED THESIS Eagle Materials is the highest-quality regional cement-plus-wallboard pure-play, structurally levered to AI data center construction plus public infrastructure. Bull lever: Laramie cement plant modernization completes late 2026, adding incremental capacity. Combined with sustained data center demand and Federal infrastructure spending, FY27 EPS could push above 15 dollars and re-rate the multiple. Key risk: Wallboard pricing has rolled over (-4% YoY); if residential weakness deepens and wallboard volumes drop another -10%, the 38 percent of revenue exposed there drags down overall earnings. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: A- (Haack team has consistently returned cash to shareholders, executed disciplined capex into Laramie modernization and Duke OK wallboard. Best-in-class operator in cement.) - Earnings quality grade: B+ (FCF backs the reported earnings. Capex elevated for plant modernization. GAAP-to-non-GAAP gap modest.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:40 The Print 1:25 The Trend 2:13 The Segments 3:02 The FCF Bridge 3:48 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 4:45 Peer Dot-Plot 5:33 Management & Earnings Quality 6:54 The Call - Verdict (price-aware + consensus) 7:48 The Call - Supporting Evidence KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026 - Q4 Revenue: $0.48B (+2% YoY, beat estimate) - Q4 EPS (non-GAAP): $2.08 (vs $1.59 est, +30.8% beat) - FY26 Revenue: $2.31B (+2% YoY, record) - FY26 EPS: $13.16 (-4% YoY) - Heavy Materials revenue: $1.43B (+10% YoY) - Cement volume: 7.5M tons (+8% YoY) - Light Materials revenue: $881.4M (-9% YoY) GUIDANCE - EXP does NOT provide forward financial guidance - Management cited geopolitical uncertainty and trade policy disruptions - FY26 shareholder returns: $400M ($382M buybacks + dividends) - Laramie cement plant modernization: ~60% complete, kiln commissioning late 2026 - Duke Oklahoma wallboard facility: construction started fall 2025, targeting H2 2027 NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone - Q4 FY25 call (Feb): "well positioned for fiscal 2026 with our Pro ecosystem investments" - Q1 FY26 call (May): "underlying demand similar to fiscal 2025, despite greater consumer uncertainty and housing affordability pressure" - Tone shift: confident strategic positioning - defensive acknowledgment of housing pressure DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - Eagle Materials Q4 FY2026 Press Release (2026-05-19) - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call commentary DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in EXP. Do your own research before any investment decision. #HD #HomeDepot #earnings #investing #stocks #ChargedAlpha