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DHUnplugged #803: The Thucydides Trap

DHUnplugged #803: The Thucydides Trap

Episode 803 Published 2 months, 1 week ago
Description

– Happy Memorial Day

– A WARM DHU welcome to Kevin Warsh – good luck fella, you are going to need it sir.

– The new transient inflation.

– Another BOARD? These guys like to make exclusive clubs…

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Warm-Up
- Happy Memorial Day
- A WARM DHU welcome to Kevin Warsh - good luck fella, you are going to need it
- The new transient inflation
- Another BOARD? These guys like to make exclusive clubs...

Markets
- Starting to come in a bit.....
- Yield curve steepening - potential for a hike over cuts
- YIELDS!
- Fuels running low - we have the list

OH MY...
- The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to around 5.14%, putting it at its highest level since the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis
- Bets are pricing in the increasingly possibility of it reaching 5.5% to 6%, which would mark the highest levels since late 1999
- 30-Year mortgage near 6.35% (average) - DOWN from 6.91% at start of 2026

30-Year Yield

Bored of Boards
- The Board of Peace - remember that one? That was established in 2025 with 15+ countries that pitched in $1 billion for permanent seat
- Indefinitely chaired by President Trump, the governing board is a mix of U.S. officials and prominent American businessmen.
- So much for the peace part of that....
- Now we hear about the Board of Investment
---The US and China are discussing a mechanism for fast-tracking some Chinese investment deals and a reduction in tariffs on non-critical goods.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned a "Board of Investment" that will be responsible for investment in n

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