Episode Details

In Episode 122 of the What the Futures podcast, Ryan reviews a volatile week in prairie crop markets after a USDA-driven spike and explains how grain companies often widen or protect basis during rallies, creating large price discrepancies between nearby elevators. He urges farmers to focus on execution during seeding-season market spikes, emphasizing that rallies can materially improve farm profitability and should be evaluated and protected. Using real examples (e.g., Killam vs. Daysland, Alberta; Aberdeen vs. Melfort, Saskatchewan), he compares wheat bids and breaks down futures, currency, and basis to show differences of roughly 50+ cents per bushel. Ryan discusses strategies to manage the remaining unsold crop without high buyout risk, including put options, structured floors with upside, and averaging-type contracts, and encourages active price discovery across buyers.

00:00 USDA Spike Setup

01:30 Short Sweet Focus

02:39 Merchandisers Love Rallies

04:16 This Week Market Recap

05:40 Profitability Wake Up Call

15:47 Execution After Spikes

17:53 How Farms Sell Rallies

21:43 Act Of God Reality

22:29 Protect The Remaining 70

25:02 Elevator Price Math

31:16 Risk Tools And Options

35:54 Eating Your Veggies