Episode Details

Former Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh warns of potential risks to markets and the U.S. economy, focusing on the ten-year Treasury yield. He believes the current economic landscape faces a structural break due to overlapping supply-side shocks. Singh suggests that if yields continue to climb, the Treasury secretary might intervene to manage debt issuance and influence the market. He anticipates a high probability of the ten-year Treasury yield hitting five percent soon. Turning to geopolitical tensions, Singh believes neither the U.S. nor Iran possesses escalation dominance, leading to a stalemate. He also notes that increased oil output from places like the Permian Basin is unlikely to offset significant shortfalls, keeping prices in the eighty to one hundred dollar range for the foreseeable future.

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