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Retail Sales Surge, But War Weighs
Description
U.S. retail sales surged for the third consecutive month in April, reaching a record high of $757.1 billion, a 0.5% increase from March and a 4.7% jump from last April. However, the majority of this growth can be attributed to soaring gas prices due to the war with Iran. Gas stations experienced a 2.8% receipts spike as pump prices surged by 12.3%, the highest since 2022. Despite this, nine out of thirteen categories saw gains, including sporting goods, online shopping, and electronics. Grocery spending also rose, primarily due to higher food costs. Marchs initial 1.7% gain was revised down to 1.6%. The war, which began on February 28th, disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping fuel costs elevated even after a brief ceasefire. Consumers received a boost from larger tax refunds, averaging $323 more than last year. However, lower-income households are depleting this extra cash faster than ever. Core retail sales, excluding gas, cars, food services, and building supplies, outperformed expectations with a 0.5% increase. Without gas, the growth was a modest 0.3%, the lowest in three months. Consumer confidence plummeted to an all-time low, paychecks are struggling to keep up with prices, and first-quarter household spending slowed to 1.6% annualized. As tax refunds dwindle and war pressures persist, it remains to be seen how consumers will fare in the coming months.
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