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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🚨 Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to the latest US peace offer, calling their demands—including gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the waterway—"totally unacceptable." Iran resumed attacks Sunday targeting the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait; Trump travels to China this week to urge Beijing to pressure Tehran toward a deal. Crude oil futures are trading higher on the news. 🛢️

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📊 CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (Week ending May 5)

🌽 Corn: Funds were net buyers of 79k contracts, bringing the net long to 345k — the largest since Feb 2025 and 84% of the modern-era "max" net long. 

🫘 Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 37k contracts, bringing the net long to 214k—the largest since Dec 2025 and 89% of the modern-era "max" net long.

🌾 SRW Wheat: Funds were net sellers of 21k contracts on the week.

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📈 FRIDAY MARKET RECAP

🫘 Soybeans were sharply higher — Nov26 +16¢ to ~$11.90/bu—on optimism that China may make a small purchase ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. 🌽 Corn followed — Dec26 +4¢ to ~$4.94/bu—supported by elevated crude oil and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. 🌾 Wheat also gained on crude strength and persistent drought concerns.

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📋 USDA WASDE — Tuesday, 11am CST

USDA releases its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Tuesday, including our first look at new crop (26/27) US and world balance sheets. USDA is expected to use Feb Ag Outlook yields (corn 183.0 bpa / beans 53.0 bpa) and March acreage numbers (corn 95.3M ac / beans 84.7M ac). With ample supply projections and several bearish factors in play, the outlook leans to the downside. 

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🏦 FED & MACRO

Goldman Sachs now expects the first rate cut in December 2026, followed by another in March 2027 — both later than previously forecast — as elevated energy costs keep core inflation near 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Goldman also lowered its US recession probability to 25%, down 5 points, though still above the pre-Iran-war estimate of 20%.

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⛽ FUEL PRICES

National average gasoline sits near $4.52/gal this morning, up sharply from $3.14/gal a year ago. Diesel sits near $5.64/gal vs. $3.52/gal a year ago, approaching the all-time record of $5.82 set in June 2022.