Episode Details

 Recording date: 4th May 2026

Olive Resource Capital reported strong performance in April 2026, delivering double-digit returns that significantly outpaced traditional mining indices, which posted flat to modest gains. The outperformance was driven primarily by stock-specific gains rather than broader commodity trends, highlighting the fund’s emphasis on targeted investment selection.

The firm has simultaneously adopted a more defensive posture, increasing cash holdings to over $3 million—more than half of its liquid assets—following the monetisation of its Aurion Resources position after a takeover by Agnico Eagle, along with selective trimming of other holdings. Despite this, the portfolio remains approximately 85% invested, reflecting a balanced approach between caution and opportunity.

A key concern shaping strategy is the perceived underpricing of geopolitical risks tied to the Iran-Strait of Hormuz situation. While oil prices remain elevated, management believes equity markets are overly optimistic about a quick resolution and are failing to account for potential prolonged supply disruptions, particularly affecting Asia-Pacific economies. As a result, the fund has reduced exposure to that region and shifted focus toward North American assets, which are viewed as more resilient due to stronger domestic energy infrastructure.

The fund also identified a shift in market dynamics from momentum-driven gains to a more selective, catalyst-driven environment. In this new phase, meaningful stock performance depends on significant corporate developments rather than general sector tailwinds.

Looking ahead, Olive Resource Capital is positioning around several anticipated catalysts, including economic assessments, resource updates, and active drilling programs across multiple portfolio companies. This strategy aims to generate returns through company-specific developments while maintaining flexibility to navigate potential volatility.

Overall, the fund combines strong recent performance with prudent risk management, adapting to both changing market conditions and evolving geopolitical uncertainties.

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