Episode Details

No Children for Joseph Smith? Joseph Smith's plural wives One of the most frequent arguments raised by skeptics of Joseph Smith's polygamy is the "fertility paradox." While Joseph Smith fathered several biological children with his first wife, Emma, there are zero verified offspring from his estimated 30 to 40 plural marriages. DNA testing on suspected plural children has continuously ruled out Joseph as the father in every known case. Does this lack of physical evidence prove his plural marriages were non-sexual? According to a statistical analysis by Rick Bennett and a research team, the absence of children is not a biological impossibility, but rather a predictable outcome of history, biology, and law. https://youtu.be/Zz6BpX2wZd0 Statistical Models of Probability Bennett, alongside a team that included OBGYN Dr. Joseph Stanford, built four statistical models to determine the mathematical probability of Joseph Smith having zero children with his plural wives. These models factored in female ovulation cycles and historical documentation of Smith's whereabouts, assuming no birth control was used: Restricted & Low Models: Assuming very infrequent relations and excluding teenagers and already-married women, the probability of zero children sits between 22% and 47%. Bennett equates this to a coin flip or rolling a double in Monopoly, making zero children a statistically unsurprising outcome. Medium (Consensus) Model: Assuming one or two encounters around the time of the sealing for a broader group of wives, the probability of zero children drops to roughly 9% to 13%. High Model: Only when assuming large possible historical encounters across 37 women does the probability of zero children become statistically microscopic (around 0.03%). Biological Factors and 19th-Century Demographics A significant reason for the lack of children stems from the demographic makeup of Joseph's plural wives. At least five women were post-menopausal (over age 47) and 11 were "polyandrous" wives already married to other men. Furthermore, several brides were teenagers. Interestingly, poorer nutrition and rigorous physical labor in the 19th century delayed a woman's first period (menarche) until an average age of 17, meaning many of the youngest wives were likely prepubescent and physically infertile at the time of their sealings (See Dan Vogel's presentation.) Contraception and the Concept of "Quickening" If the High Model is accurate and sexual relations were frequent, Bennett notes that the Nauvoo community had widespread access to birth control. Popular texts from the 1830s heavily circulated knowledge about methods like the sponge, withdrawal, and highly acidic douching to prevent pregnancies. Additionally, 19th-century medical and Mormon theological consensus believed that a soul did not enter a fetus until "quickening" (around 20 weeks.) Because of this, early herbal interventions used to "restore the menses" were viewed simply as regulating the female body, rather than as abortion or sin. Legal and Theological Survival Ultimately, concealing pregnancies was an absolute necessity for survival. In Illinois, bigamy and adultery were felonies heavily penalized by fines, whipping, and imprisonment. Under the law, a child would serve as incontrovertible physical proof of illicit cohabitation, inviting immediate legal prosecution and mob violence. To avoid exposure, the theology of plural marriage subtly shifted. While originally grounded in an "Abrahamic" mandate to multiply and raise up seed on earth, the practice pivoted to a "Melchizedek" order. This new paradigm was focused on creating secret, dynastic priestly linkages for eternal salvation in the afterlife, entirely bypassing the legal dangers of earthly procreation. In short, the absence of children in Nauvoo polygamy is not a historical impossibility, but a reality forcefully shaped by 19th-century logistics, biology, and the heavy anvil of American law. Don't miss my previous p