Episode Details

We sat down with Mike Stengel of AeroDynamic Advisory to discuss what the US-Iran conflict is doing to aviation. The Middle East moves about 20% of global crude, and with the Strait of Hormuz closed and Gulf refining capacity damaged, jet fuel stocks in Asia-Pacific and Europe are drawing down while crack spreads widen in ways hedging contracts don't cover. Mike explains why US shale isn't the easy substitute, why Spirit just liquidated and JetBlue looks fragile, and why Delta's once-mocked Monroe refinery acquisition suddenly looks prescient.

The bigger question we get into is whether this is a temporary pricing event or a more permanent regime change? For the first time in decades, commercial, military, and business aviation are all riding supply-constrained tailwinds at once, but the industry spent 30 years optimizing for cheap energy and stable airspace. We dig into what fragility looks like when those assumptions break, aging fleets, narrowing corridors between unusable Middle East and Russian airspace, what the conflict is doing for SAF, and where the next contrarian bet might come from.