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The stock market is ripping, but the stuff you actually pay for is not. Gas is still up. Crude is still high. Fertilizer is still volatile. And if you’re living in the real economy, none of this feels like a win.

We break down what’s happening in Iran right now through the lens that matters: the Strait of Hormuz, the toll booth narrative, and why the “terminated” headline doesn’t match the reality on the ground. We track the ships, the timeline, and the incentives behind the messaging.

Then we move into affordability and the middle class economy: why necessities keep climbing, why companies can profit while people get squeezed, and why it keeps feeling like the ground is moving under us.

At the end, I give you three predictions for the next six months. Save them. Screenshot them. And we’ll come back and see if I was right.

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