Episode Details

Chuck Todd unpacks a wave of devastating new polling that shows Americans have lost confidence in Trump across nearly every metric, with his approval cratering among independents and only his hardcore base still standing by him. He notes Trump is underwater on virtually every issue except taxes, immigration, and the border — that his trustworthiness is lower than any past president, that even 22% of his own 2024 voters don't believe he's kept his promises, and that his approval has collapsed with younger voters even as it holds up with the elderly. In a particularly striking finding, only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself, and even the "own the libs" voters can't get behind that particular vanity. Todd warns this is a political disaster in the making for Republicans: the enthusiasm gap is now massive in the Democrats' favor, and the Iran war is polling more unpopular than the worst polling ever recorded for Iraq or Vietnam. Yet despite all this, neither party's brand has actually improved with swing voters — both parties still carry almost identical unfavorability ratings, voters of both parties don't even want their leaders to work across the aisle anymore, and the political incentives are now firmly aligned with confrontation rather than compromise — creating an enormous opportunity for independent candidates that neither major party seems prepared to address. On Iran, he says there is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily — his only real escalation option would be ground troops, which would risk total political collapse — and predicts the eventual deal will look like whatever framework the Iranians put forward. He flags a striking recent Tucker Carlson interview in which Carlson was forced to face hard facts, observing that Tucker increasingly looks like a combination of Pat Buchanan and Roger Ailes who is genuinely trying to build a political movement of his own. He returns to the case for expanding the House of Representatives as the fix for the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act ruling, warns that Republicans could pay a serious political price if Southern voters perceive the GOP as actively trying to disenfranchise Black voters and closes with the news that Janet Mills has dropped out of the Maine Senate race — leaving Democrats now trying to coalesce around Graham Platner, in what Chuck says feels increasingly like a mirror image of the 2016 presidential campaign. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the Hindenburg disaster and how it was the origin of “breaking news”, and also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:30 New polling shows Americans have no confidence in Trump

09:15 Trump’s approval has cratered with independent voters

10:00 Trump is only above his approval rating on taxes, immigration and border

10:45 The only people that approve of Trump are his base

12:45 The polling shows a massive repudiation of Trump

14:15 Trump’s trustworthiness is lower than any past president

16:45 Only 78% of Trump voters believe he’s kept his promises

18:15 Trump’s highest approval is with older voters, collapsed with younger voters

20:00 Only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself

21:00 Even the “own the libs” voters don’t like Trump naming things