Episode Details

David Turver, an Energy Analyst from the UK, stops by the Energy News Beat Podcast.

With the spotlight on the world stage around the price of oil, the world is bifurcating into two camps. Those going after Energy Security Starts at home, and the other camp is tripling down on Green Energy and Deindustrialization.

I do not know how the Iran conflict will turn out, but I feel that if the Venezuelan-style controls are put in place and the Iranians can set up a government, there is hope. That would cut out billions of dollars annually to the proxy fighters in the Middle East, funded by China’s insatiable demand for oil.

David’s Substack is a great resource for information on the UK grid system. In the article Levelised Cost of Energy Models are Junk, he really outlines how Fake LCOE model results are being used to poison the debate about the cost of renewables.

For our Substack subscribers fighting local wind or solar farms, this may help, as we all need to ask the right questions. The thing that struck me most in the article was how the numbers are made up and changed to fit the narrative. It is the same thing that has been done to the United States grid system, as we need to redefine the Levelized Cost of Energy to have wind, solar, and even hydrogen have storage tied to their projects. With recycling and end-of-life projects funded and bonded.

1. Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Models & Their Flaws

The core topic of the podcast centers on how LCOE models used by organizations like IRENA, Lazard, and government agencies significantly underestimate the true cost of renewable energy. David Turber argues these models are “junk” because they:

• Use unrealistically low capital expenditure estimates
• Assume artificially high load factors (capacity utilization rates)
• Ignore grid integration, storage, and decommissioning costs
• Apply lower costs of capital to renewables than to fossil fuels

Real-world example: IRENA estimates onshore wind at £25/MWh, but actual 2024 UK auction prices were £72/MWh—nearly three times higher.

2. Renewable Energy Economics & Hidden Costs

The discussion reveals that renewable energy projects rely heavily on subsidies and have significant undisclosed expenses:

• Decommissioning costs are not properly funded; companies reduce asset values rather than setting aside cash reserves
• Nameplate upgrades in the US use subsidy money to replace turbine components, artificially extending project lifespans
• Land reclamation liability for wind farms in the US totals ~$89 billion and isn’t factored into LCOE calculations
• Wind farms become uneconomical after ~15 years when subsidies end and maintenance costs rise

3. Grid Reliability & Intermittency Issues

The speakers highlight critical problems with integrating intermittent renewables:

• Gas plants must constantly “spin up and spin down” to compensate for wind/solar variability, causing extra wear and maintenance costs
• Grid balancing and curtailment payments (paying generators not to produce) are not included in renewable cost models
• Texas ERCOT has 85 GW peak demand but 180 GW nameplate capacity due to wind/solar overbuilding—requiring expensive grid infrastructure upgrades
• AI data centers demand dedicated, reliable power, which renewables cannot provide without nuclear backup

4. Energy Security & Geopolitical Implications

The conversation shifts to how energy policy affects national security and economic competitiveness:

• UK/EU deindustrialization: Closing refineries, petrochemical plants, and steel mills due to high energy costs
• Dependency on imports: The UK now imports 50-60% of jet fuel and diesel; refiner