Episode Details

The Rate Update — Here's Why the Fed Can't Cut Rates (Yet)

The Federal Reserve meets today — and the big question for homeowners and homebuyers is simple:

Why can’t the Fed cut rates yet?

Even if inflation is cooling in some areas, the Fed still has a problem. Core inflation, mortgage rates, Treasury yields, oil prices, jobs data, and market expectations all matter. And today may be especially important because this could be one of Jerome Powell’s final Fed meetings as Chair.

In this episode, we break down what the Fed is likely to do, what Powell may say after the meeting, why the market may move more on his press conference than the rate decision itself, and what it could mean for mortgage rates, homebuyers, homeowners, and anyone trying to decide whether to lock, float, buy, wait, or refinance.

Today’s key question:
👉 If inflation is cooling, why won’t the Fed cut rates yet?

We’ll look at:
• The Federal Reserve decision
• Why Powell’s press conference matters
• Inflation excluding food and energy
• Mortgage rates and Treasury yields
• Why the Fed may stay cautious
• What homebuyers should watch next
• Why rate cuts do not automatically mean lower mortgage rates
• What this means if you are buying or refinancing

No hype. Just real data.

CHAPTERS
00:00 The Fed Meeting Homebuyers Need to Watch
00:35 Why the Fed Probably Can’t Cut Yet
01:20 Powell’s Final Fed Meeting?
02:10 Why the Press Conference Matters More Than the Decision
03:05 Inflation Is Cooling — But Is It Enough?
04:10 Core Inflation, Food, Energy, and the Fed’s Problem
05:05 Trump, Powell, and the Next Fed Era
06:00 What Kevin Warsh Could Mean for Future Rate Policy
07:00 Why Mortgage Rates Don’t Follow the Fed Directly
08:10 Treasury Yields, Bonds, and Mortgage Rate Movement
09:15 What Homebuyers Should Do Right Now
10:15 Should You Lock or Float?
11:10 What Homeowners and Refinancers Should Watch Next
12:00 Final Takeaway: Why the Fed Is Stuck

🔗 NEXT STEPS

🏠 Ready to Buy or Refinance? Get Pre-Approved  
https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register

📅 Want to Talk Through Your Options? Schedule a Consultation  
https://calendly.com/d/cq29-7xd-x3v/the-frio-team?month=2025-05

✉️ Have Questions? Contact / Ask Dan  
https://www.therateupdate.com/contact

TOP RESOURCES
📉 Track Mortgage Rates Automatically → https://rw2.therateupdate.com/
🏠 TRU Mortgage Command Center → https://command.therateupdate.com/
💳 TRU Debt Optimizer → https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/
🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools → https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations
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📈 Free Credit Scores (Credit Karma) → https://www.creditkarma.com/lp/free-credit-scores-v12aff?adcopy=0&adcampaign=core_acq_awin

Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

I break down mortgage rates, housing, inflation, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, and the economic news that impacts homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market.

My goal is simple: help you understand what’s happening, why it matters, and what you should do next.

Whether you’re buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, comparing lenders, or trying to understand where rates may go next, you’