Episode Details

This episode was recorded live via X Spaces — audio quality varies in places.

In the third CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded April 30, 2026, Head of Content Ken Odeluga is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk for a packed session the morning after the most divided FOMC vote in over three decades.

The DOJ has dropped its probe into Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh has cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a historic party-line vote, and Powell has signalled he intends to stay on as a board governor — all in the space of a week.

Meanwhile, four dissents at Wednesday's FOMC meeting — the most since October 1992 — have laid bare a fragmented central bank just as its leadership transition begins. The team unpacks what it all means for the rate path, risk assets, and crypto specifically, before turning to the Bitcoin ETF distribution war heating up between IBIT, Morgan Stanley's newly launched MSBT, and Goldman Sachs' income-focused filing.

00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome

01:20 – DOJ Drops the Powell Probe: Clearing the Path for Warsh

05:04 – Powell Digs In: Staying as Governor Until 2028

09:33 – Jackson Hole: The Next Real Fed Event

10:26 – Risk Assets in Earnings Mode, Not Rate-Cut Mode

12:18 – Inside the FOMC Decision: Four Dissents, Most Since 1992

24:25 – Rate Cut Odds Collapse: What It Means for Crypto

29:40 – Why Crypto Is Lagging Equities Right Now

31:54 – Morgan Stanley's MSBT: Can a Late Entrant Compete?

35:02 – The Distribution War: IBIT's Portability Edge

41:58 – Goldman's Bitcoin Premium Income ETF: Boomer Candy Arrives

48:07 – Bitcoin's Gamma Ceiling & the Missing Euphoria Bid

52:20 – Capital Flows: ETFs vs. MicroStrategy

54:46 – The Silver Lining: Warsh as Crypto Bull & Fed Deregulation

56:24 – AI CapEx & the Growth Sustainability Question

57:57 – Week Ahead: Iran, Clarity Act, Michigan Sentiment & Earnings

61:03 – Closing Remarks