Episode Details

IMF cuts global growth forecast due to Iran war and energy chaos, predicting just 3.1% growth in 2026. Oil at $82 helps, but without conflict, growth would be 3.4%. Three scenarios: weaker, worse, or severe, depending on wars outcome. Severe scenario sees oil at $110 in 2026, $125 in 2027, and a global recession. US growth at 2.3%, Eurozone at 1.1%, China at 4.4%, emerging markets at 3.9%, and Iran at -6.1%. Inflation could surpass 6% in worst case, forcing central banks to act. Governments may offer subsidies, but IMF warns against excessive spending. Wars duration will impact global recovery.

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