Episode Details

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since 28 February. As of 13 April, vessels are still not moving in meaningful numbers. The last ships to leave before the blockade are now reaching their destinations, meaning the real supply gap is only beginning to materialise.

Key messages:

• Before the conflict began, the strait carried 30-35% of global crude oil, 20% of natural gas, and up to 30% of internationally traded fertilizers.

• Food commodity prices have not risen yet because existing stocks are absorbing the shock. But if the strait traffic does not resume, the shocks to energy and fertilizer markets will translate into higher commodity and retail prices later in 2026 and into 2027.

• The crop calendar is the key constraint. As planting seasons begin, farmers must choose between absorbing higher input costs or reducing fertilizer and other input use. They need targeted, timebound support, as do low-income countries relying on food and fertilizer imports.

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