Episode Details

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cmGmIS

In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David recaps a volatile session in which futures fell 400–500 points after Iran negotiations failed, then markets rallied into the close as investors weighed a new U.S. strategy: a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz aimed at halting Iranian trade and forcing reopening. Oil spiked about 8% overnight but ended up roughly 1.5% to around $98, while estimates suggest the blockade could cost Iran about $275M/day in exports and $150M/day in imports. Bahnsen expects continued volatility and notes a tariff threat tied to arms sales to Iran was not taken seriously by markets. He also reviews CPI (3.3% headline, 2.6% core; gasoline up 21% MoM), weak existing home sales, uncertainty around Fed leadership and rate cuts, why U.S. producers focus on futures pricing, and the start of earnings season, with an AI-focused episode planned Friday.

00:00 Market Whiplash Recap

00:43 Iran Blockade Strategy

01:35 Oil Spike and Volatility

02:59 Blockade Costs and Outlook

04:05 Inflation and Tariff Talk

04:55 Housing Market Check

05:24 Fed Uncertainty and Rates

06:25 Why US Oil Output Lags

07:19 Earnings and AI Preview

07:39 Wrap Up and Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com