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國際時事跟讀 Ep. L178: 日圓重貶，日銀騎虎難下 Yen Slides to 160, BOJ Signals It Is Watching

Highlights 主題摘要

• BOJ Governor Ueda told parliament on March 30 that yen movements have a "huge impact" on Japan's economy, signalling growing pressure for faster rate hikes.
• The BOJ held rates at 0.75% in March, but oil-driven inflation is pushing household costs up five to seven percent year-on-year, narrowing its room to wait.
• Japanese overseas travel in 2024 recovered to just 13 million departures — still a third below pre-pandemic levels — as the weak yen keeps foreign trips out of reach.

For Japan, the currency market has become the fulcrum of economic debate. On March 30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that foreign exchange movements have a "huge impact" on the country's economy and prices — the clearest signal yet that yen weakness is no longer a peripheral concern but a primary driver of monetary policy. The yen briefly touched 160.27 to the dollar on March 28, its weakest since July 2024, when authorities had previously intervened to arrest the currency's slide. Tokyo's Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura warned of growing speculative activity, while Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated the government stood ready to take "bold actions."

日圓匯率問題，已成為日本當前經濟辯論的核心議題。3月30日，日銀行長植田和男在國會表示，外匯市場的波動對日本的經濟與物價走勢有「巨大影響」，這是迄今最直接的信號，顯示日圓疲軟已不再是次要問題，而是貨幣政策的主要考量。日圓在3月28日一度觸及1美元兌160.27日圓，創下2024年7月以來新低，當年當局曾進場干預，壓制日圓跌勢。財務省副大臣三村淳表示對外匯市場投機交易升溫的憂慮，財務大臣片山皋月則聲明政府已準備好採取「大膽行動」。

The structural cause remains a stubbornly wide interest rate differential. After ending its negative interest rate regime in March 2024, the BOJ raised borrowing costs cautiously, taking a gradualist path to 0.75%. But with the US Federal Reserve keeping rates elevated, the gap remains vast. Investors routinely borrow cheaply in yen and deploy capital into higher-yielding assets elsewhere — the carry trade — putting the yen under persistent selling pressure.

日圓長期走軟的結構性根源，在於日本與其他主要經濟體之間長期懸殊的利差。日銀於2024年3月結束負利率政策後，已逐步將利率調升至0.75%，但美國聯準會為壓制通膨而維持高利率，兩者之間的利差依然顯著。投資人持續以低廉成本借入日圓，將資金配置到海外收益率更高的資產，形成所謂的套利交易，持續壓低市場對日圓的需求。

Urgency sharpened in 2026 as surging oil prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, compounded the inflationary effect on import