Episode Details

BONUS: Why Your Plan Is Lying to You — #NoEstimates, Throughput, and the Superstition of Project Management

This episode is a cross-post from The EBFC Show, Felipe Engineer-Manriquez's podcast exploring Lean and Agile in construction. In this conversation, Felipe interviews Vasco about the #NoEstimates movement, throughput-based planning, and why traditional project management is still stuck in the middle ages of managing creative work.

The Human Side of Scrum That the Scrum Guide Doesn't Cover

"When you go into a daily meeting and you start looking at the people in that room, maybe they are the exact same people that were there yesterday, but the team is totally different. Somebody might have had a bad night's sleep, somebody might have had an argument with their spouse. These are human beings. These are not machines that you can just distribute work to."

Vasco's path to agile coaching started with a realization that most practitioners eventually reach: the problems in software development aren't technological. They're about people — getting agreements, sharing information at the right time, making the collective brain of a team actually function. The Scrum Guide gives you organizing principles — how many meetings, who's in them — but it says almost nothing about the real-time feedback cycle between humans that makes or breaks a team. That's why the Scrum Master role exists: to be the lubricant for human interactions, to break down complex ideas into items the collective mind can process. It's the piece that makes Scrum work, and it's the piece that's hardest to teach.

From Project Manager to #NoEstimates — The Bet That Changed Everything

"The PM wanted 15 items per sprint, and the team said 'yeah, we can do 15.' I said, this is not gonna happen. The team had been delivering between five and eight items per sprint. I said, I'm gonna be positive — I'm gonna say seven. And no surprise, by the end of the sprint, they delivered seven."

Vasco started as a project manager — and not the easy certification kind. He went through IPMA, which means six months of training, a four-hour written exam, and an expert interview, just for the entry level. Planning and estimating was the job. Then he ran his first Scrum project, specifically to prove it couldn't work. By the second month, he couldn't understand how anything else could work. The team delivered something to show every single sprint — something that never happened with traditional project management. The turning point came when he made a bet with a product manager: the PM needed 15 items per sprint, the team committed to 15, but historical throughput was 5-8 items. Reality delivered seven. That moment crystallized the #NoEstimates insight: we can't fight reality, but we can choose which seven items to deliver.

Reality Is a Bitch — Why Linear Predictive Planning Fails

"Never believe the plan. Or as in Scarface — never get high on your own supply. It's so unbelievable how project managers still today believe their freaking plans."

At Nokia, Vasco managed a program of 500 people across 100 teams on four cont