Episode Details

The Central Bank of Ireland warns of a potential energy shock from the Iran conflict, which could push inflation above four percent this year. Their baseline inflation forecast is now 2.9% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027, due to higher oil and gas prices. A worst-case scenario could see inflation hit 4.2% and oil averaging $120 per barrel. Energy prices may remain elevated until 2028. Household income is expected to hold steady, but unemployment could rise. The government is urged to respond with targeted measures. On a positive note, modified domestic demand is projected to grow, business investment is positive, exports surged, and housing completions are set to rise. However, downside risks from higher costs pose threats to housing and investment viability.

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