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Hot inflation, soft growth, and a CRE market caught in the middle
Description
Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai dig into the latest macro data and benchmark today's landscape against some uncomfortable historical parallels. Drawing on three major economist surveys covering more than 100 forecasters, they also map out where there's consensus, where there's divergence, and what it all means for CRE performance and capital markets.
Key moments:
00:48 Stat of the day: Commercial real estate pricing through the 1970s
02:29 70’s déjà vu
06:31 Hot PPI inflation
08:40 Fed holds rates
13:33 Housing sales slide
16:21 Wholesale inventories
18:56 Economist surveys outlook
26:19 Upcoming data and events
27:02 Catch us at the ARES conference
Resources mentioned:
Producer Price Index – February 2026 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_03182026.htm
FOMC Rate Decision – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm
FOMC Summary of Economic Projections – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260318.htm
New Residential Sales – January 2026 -https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html
Advance Economic Indicators (Wholesale Inventories) – January 2026 - https://www.census.gov/wholesale/
Survey of Professional Forecasters – Q1 2026 - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026
Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey - https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998