Episode Details

The February rent numbers are in and the headline is going to scare some people.

National multifamily rent growth slowed to 1.2% year-over-year, down from 1.4% in January. Annualized monthly growth is sitting at 0.2%.

But context is the difference between panicking and positioning.

In this episode, we break down:

• Rents have increased for 32 straight months with zero national declines
• 86.6% of metros still posting positive YoY growth
• Florida and Texas struggling under oversupply: North Port (-5.3%), Cape Coral (-5.0%), Austin still 18.2% below its 2022 peak
• National vacancy hit 7.3% in December
• Virginia Beach (+5.9%), San Francisco (+5.9%), and Chicago (+5.4%) leading the other side of the split
• Northeast projected at 4-5% annual rent growth; Midwest on a 3-4.5% path
• Sun Belt looking at 1-2% at best until supply is absorbed
• Yardi Matrix projecting 450,000 deliveries in 2026, a 24% drop from 595,000 in 2025
• 2027 deliveries dropping further to ~416,000
• New construction starts for rental housing down 70% from peak
• Yardi forecasting national rent growth to hit 2% by 2027
• Why disciplined operators buying now, at the bottom of the rent growth cycle, will look like geniuses 18 months from now

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity — rise48.com