Episode Details

Story of the Week (DR):

War

Saudi Aramco CEO issues stark warning: Iran war could bring ‘catastrophic’ shock to global oil

Prediction markets face questions on Iran war bets, from regime change to nuclear detonation

The Maduro Capture (Jan 2026): Just hours before the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a new Polymarket account wagered $30,000 on his removal

Israeli Military Indictments (Feb 2026): At least two individuals in the Israeli defense forces were reportedly indicted for using classified intelligence to place winning bets on the specific dates of military strikes in Iran

National Security Risk: A recent report by Responsible Statecraft warns that officials with the power to influence military timing could alter operations to maximize their payout

 The Atlantic Council recently warned that foreign adversaries can "weaponize the odds" by dumping money into a thinly traded market to create a false narrative that a country is about to collapse, potentially triggering a real-world panic or bank run.

Kalshi (private)

1/13/25: Kalshi names Donald Trump Jr. as strategic advisor

Polymarket (college dropout Shayne Coplan)

8/26/25: Kalshi Advisor Donald Trump Jr. Joins Rival Polymarket Board

Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital is making an eight-figure investment in the controversial prediction-market company.

AI Jobs

Anthropic just mapped out which jobs AI could potentially replace. A ‘Great Recession for white-collar workers’ is absolutely possible

The most AI-exposed group is 16 percentage points more likely to be female, earns 47% more on average, and is nearly four times as likely to hold a graduate degree compared to the least exposed group.

Sam Altman admits AI is killing the labor-capital balance—and says nobody knows what to do about it

Oracle expected to

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