Episode Details

Markets are positioning for tomorrow's FOMC meeting as the 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.28% and the 30-year approaches the critical 5% level. With a 92% probability of unchanged rates at 3.5-3.75%, the real action centers on forward guidance and Powell's final meetings before his May 15 term ends. Bitcoin shows historical vulnerability following Fed meetings, dropping after 7 of 8 meetings in 2025. We break down hawkish versus dovish scenarios, equity sector rotation expectations, crypto downside risk estimates of 8-12%, and why Kevin Warsh's potential succession matters for policy direction. Critical analysis for traders across stocks, bonds, and crypto as markets face this inflection point.