Episode Details

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What happens if the U.S. and Israel win the war militarily, but Iran’s regime survives?

Dan Senor is joined by Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal to assess where the war stands as it enters its third week. While U.S. and Israeli forces continue grinding down Iranian military infrastructure, the bigger questions are now economic and strategic, especially after Iran effectively weaponized the Strait of Hormuz and global energy markets.

They debate whether Washington and Jerusalem share the same endgame, what success would actually look like, and whether removing Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile could become the decisive turning point.

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In this episode:

09:12 — The Current Phase of the War: Grinding Through Iranian Targets

09:42 — Iran’s Energy Gambit and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

11:03 — Oil Markets, Global Pressure, and Trump’s Political Timeline

25:18 — The Strategic Debate Inside Washington and Jerusalem

28:00 — Israel’s Ultimate Goal: Regime Change in Tehran

30:48 — Could the U.S. End the War Before Israel Is Finished?

35:18 — The Enriched Uranium Question and the “Strategic Surprise” Scenario

37:00 — If the Regime Survives: Did the War Actually Change the Region?

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Credits: Ilan Benatar, Adaam James Levin-Areddy, Brittany Cohen, Ava Weiner, Martin Huergo, Mariangeles Burgos, and Patricio Spadavecchia, Yuval Semo