Episode Details
Back to EpisodesIs a Recession Coming? The Economist Behind the Most Accurate Indicator in History Weighs In
Description
Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, three ships were struck near the Strait of Hormuz just yesterday, and the word "recession" is creeping back into the conversation. And we’re all feeling more than just a little bit anxious about what that means for our money.
On this special bonus episode, Jean Chatzky sits down with Claudia Sahm, former Fed section chief, senior economist under President Obama, and creator of the Sahm Rule, a recession indicator that has been 100% accurate going back to 1959. Claudia breaks down exactly what's happening with oil prices and why it affects everything from your gas tank to your grocery bill to your retirement account.
She explains what the Sahm Rule actually is, why she's cautioning people not to over-rely on it right now, and what she means when she says she just doesn't have "a good feeling" about this economy.
Links mentioned:
- Claudia's Substack: Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
- Claudia's writing at Bloomberg Opinion
- Join InvestingFixx — your first two classes are free!
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