Episode Details

Note: This episode was recorded prior to recent developments in the Middle East and the associated impact on global energy markets. Some macroeconomic context discussed in this episode reflects conditions at the time of recording.

Lenders are re-engaging, origination activity is picking up, and the market is beginning to find its footing around the wall of maturities, but rising operating expenses are outpacing rent growth in select segments, and a new set of macro uncertainties is changing the capital markets math for CRE. In this episode, we’re joined by Brian Bailey, Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Trimont, to examine CRE debt market conditions, sector-level operating trends, and the risks the industry may be underestimating heading into 2026. Brian draws on 14 years as the Federal Reserve System's CRE subject matter expert and Trimont's $700B loan servicing portfolio to share what the data is revealing about credit conditions, expense pressures, and lender behavior across the market.

Key moments

01:29 - Brian’s career journey

07:00 - From Fed to Trimont

09:09 - Office lending sentiment

11:55 - Trimont data advantage

14:11 - Stagflation and expenses

18:20 - Capital markets inflection

22:03 - Wall of maturities

25:54 - Non-bank lending risks

29:52 - 2026 themes by sector

32:37 - Underappreciated 2026 risks

34:36 - An industry wish for transparency

Resources mentioned

Brian Bailey - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-bailey-1a73888/

Trimont - https://trimont.com/