Episode Details

🇺🇸/IRAN: 1 Week in - Still too early...

US-led strikes on Iran are ongoing, Iranian missile retaliation continues (for 1 week now) but several clocks are ticking;

▪️Iranian missiles and launchers:

The US and Israel are actively hunting Iranian missile launchers which, if sufficiently neutralized, negates whatever extensive stockpiles of missiles Iran might have.

Iran's rate of fire has already been on the decease. I hear many reasons why that might be, but one of those reasons might be loss launchers.

If rates drop, then come back up, this means there are other reasons for drops in rates. Keep a close eye on this.

A full loss of Iranian launch capabilities would alleviate pressure on US anti-missile defense munitions and allow the US to extend its war significantly.

However, Iran would still be able to resist with drones and anti-shipping missiles as well as simply resist by maintaining internal stability regardless of US bombing (as Afghanistan and Vietnam did).

Iran will have lost significant leverage to force a shorter war and will then be required to fight on in a much longer one.

At this point however, Iran is still launching missiles.

▪️US anti-missile munitions:

The US and its proxies may run short of anti-missile munitions before mid-March (shorter than they already were).

If Iranian missile and drone strikes continue, even as a trickle, this may lead to an increase in damage to regional US military infrastructure compromising its ability to continue its war.

The depletion of defensive and offensive US weapons also inhibits the many other wars and proxy wars of aggression it is waging or preparing for;

▪️Maintenance wall for US/proxy aircraft:

Around mid to late March, maintenance requirements will significantly impact sortie rates, forcing either a drop in operational tempo or a major rotation of aircraft into the region including possible rotations of aircraft carriers.

This is might be why the US keeps talking about a "4-5 week operation";

▪️US-Israeli ISR drones:

These are expensive long range drones (like Hermes and Reapers) used to find targets across Iran.

Iran has already shot down dozens of them with Israel likely having around 100-200 of these drones available in total and the US having 200-300 (but not all in theater).

Iran won't be able to shoot them all down, but continued attrition will also impact operational tempo and effectiveness;

There are other metrics at play including the potential outcome of almost certainly planned US ground operations involving US special forces and US-armed terrorists previously used to topple Libya, Syria, and fight in both Lebanon and Iraq.

Iran has "mosaic" defense strategy for its missile, naval, and internal security operations that has so far proven resilient and effective despite unprecedented US aggression.

Modern warfare, especially when an offensive passes from initial momentum to a sort of equilibrium, involves attrition more than simple initiative.

It is still too early to tell regarding any of these metrics.

If the US runs out of anti-missile munitions we will see significantly more damage to US targets.

If Iran runs out of launchers, we will see a steep drop off of ballistic missile launches even after maintenance walls and loss of IRS drones impact US operational tempo hunting those launchers.

Ultimately, the US must either topple the Iranian government or use an exit ramp for another pause to win or end its war of aggression this round.

Iran simpl