Episode Details

Canola just broke $700, but a weekend escalation in the Middle East is sending diesel and fertilizer costs through the roof. In this week's Cup of Coffee, Ryan breaks down what's moving markets and what farmers should do RIGHT NOW about fuel, urea, and canola hedging. Guest Quintin from JGL Capital joins to walk through the two hedging strategies dominating broker conversations this week: straight puts (with implied volatility still low) and selling futures with an upside insurance call. Plus: Should you fill your fuel tanks today or wait?

TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 — Opening & Market Prices (Canola $703 May / $707 Nov)

2:28 — Grain Prices: $15 Canola, $9 Yellow Peas, $8.25 HRSW

4:50 — Input Prices: Diesel 97¢–$1.21/L, Urea $1,100–$1,140/ton

7:05 — Viewer Questions: Fuel timing, wheat targets, raising hedge levels

9:01 — Headlines: Brazil Soy Cut, China Tariff Drop, Strait of Hormuz

11:00 — Guest: Quinton from JGL Capital

12:40 — Are Farmer Margins Actually Getting Worse in 2026?

14:02 — Canola Rally: Why It's Holding Steady Above $700

16:40 — Two Canola Hedging Strategies Right Now (Puts vs. Futures + Call)

18:00 — Wheat Outlook: Funds Buying Back Shorts, Basis Still Brutal

LINKS & RESOURCES: - JGL Capital (Quinton): https://www.jglcapital.com

AGi3 Precision Insurance: https://www.agi3.ai 

What The Futures Podcast: https://www.whatthefuturespodcast.ca

Ryan's Email: ryan@whatthefuturespodcast.ca -

Susan Stroud / No Bull Ag (referenced)

AgRule Brazil Soy Production Report

Quote of the week from Susan Stroud: "When markets pay you for uncertainty, take them up on it."

️ Cup of Coffee airs LIVE every Tuesday at 8:00 AM MST on YouTube.

Listen to the show on the go. https://open.spotify.com/show/3xz7OvO7P0WDW8mAx25L1y?si=bd51356530834599

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/what-the-futures/id1715185428