Episode Details

Oil prices remain elevated due to Middle East tensions, with Brent crude predicted to trade between $80-$90/barrel. Goldman Sachs estimates an $18 risk premium, which could ease to $4 if half the Strait of Hormuz flows stop. A full month-long halt could boost European and Asian gas prices by 130%. OPEC plans a small output increase, but Gulf countries have storage for 25 days. Banks warn a 3-4 week restriction could push Brent above $100/barrel. Long-term, Bernstein forecasts $80/barrel Brent, with extreme scenarios reaching $120-$150. The market can handle a week or two of disruption, but prices would surge beyond that.

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