Middle East escalation. Oil surging. Inflation fears reigniting. And mortgage rates are jumping.

Today we break down:

• Why conflict involving Iran is sending oil prices higher
 • How rising oil feeds directly into inflation expectations
 • Why the bond market is selling off instead of rallying
 • What this means for the 10-Year Treasury
 • And how all of it impacts YOUR mortgage rate

Normally, geopolitical conflict pushes investors into bonds — which lowers mortgage rates.

That’s not happening.

Instead, the market is pricing in higher inflation risk, fewer Fed cuts, and longer-lasting rate pressure.

If oil stays elevated, inflation could reaccelerate.
 If inflation reaccelerates, mortgage rates don’t fall.

We’ll walk through exactly what needs to happen next for rates to stabilize — or drop.

Transparent. Data-driven. No hype.

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Every day, we pull real pricing from 30+ lenders and show you exactly what you qualify for — plus lock vs. float guidance tied to:

• CPI
 • Jobs reports
 • MBS pricing
 • 10-Year Treasury movements

No guessing. No hype. Just data.

00:00 Middle East Escalation & Market Shock
 00:45 Why Oil Is Spiking Right Now
 01:50 How Oil Impacts Inflation
 03:00 Producer Inflation (PPI) Surprise
 04:05 Why Bonds Are Selling Off
 05:15 10-Year Treasury Breakdown
 06:20 Why Mortgage Rates Are Rising
 07:30 Inflation vs Recession — What the Market Is Pricing
 08:45 What Needs to Happen for Rates to Fall
 09:35 Lock vs Float Strategy Right Now

Dan Frio | NMLS #246527
 Equal Housing Lender | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781
 This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender | 524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781. Education and commentary only; not an offer or commitment to lend.