Episode Details

Is deflation about to hit the US economy? We analyze five critical pillars driving the deflation thesis-from collapsing shelter costs and wage pressure easing to AI productivity gains and money supply dynamics. The data reveals a fifteen to twenty percent probability of brief deflationary periods in the next twelve to eighteen months, primarily if recession materializes. We break down current CPI trends at two point four percent, core PCE stuck at three percent, and the critical housing lag that's locked in disinflation for twenty twenty-six and twenty twenty-seven. Plus: Kevin Warsh's pivot to AI as a deflationary force, Morgan Stanley's bull case, and what traders need to watch in rate-sensitive assets and Fed policy. This episode delivers actionable intel on whether we're facing Japan-style deflation or a managed transition to low inflation.