Episode Details

AI isn’t just about Nvidia anymore — it’s quietly rewiring the entire industrial economy, and most investors don’t even realize where the real money will be made.

In this episode of Raise Your Average, hosts Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick sit down with Ivana Delevska, Founder and CIO of Spear Advisors, to unpack how AI is splitting the market — creating massive dispersion between winners and losers — and why passive index exposure may no longer be enough.

While most investors believe they’re diversified through Nasdaq or S&P 500 index funds, Delevska explains that passive exposure is heavily concentrated in mega-cap hyperscalers. The real opportunity, she argues, lies deeper in the AI value chain — in networking, optical components, semiconductor capital equipment, electrification, cybersecurity infrastructure, and even space.

This conversation goes beyond the hype cycle. Delevska outlines why AI CapEx — projected to reach $600B this year — is fundamentally different from past tech cycles. The sheer dollar magnitude is forcing multi-year infrastructure buildouts, creating 10-year visibility rather than the traditional 3–5 year tech cycle. Yet while hardware beneficiaries remain durable, SaaS and application-layer companies face real disruption risk as AI-native competitors rapidly reshape the software landscape.

For investors, this isn’t about abandoning mega-cap tech — it’s about understanding dispersion. In an AI-driven world, alpha will increasingly come from identifying where capital is flowing, how physical constraints shape adoption, and which companies sit at the most critical points in the industrial tech stack.

🔑 3 Key Takeaways

1️⃣ Passive Exposure Isn’t True AI Diversification

Owning the Nasdaq or S&P 500 mostly means owning hyperscalers. The broader AI opportunity extends into semiconductor equipment, optical networking, power infrastructure, cybersecurity, and industrial tech — areas largely underrepresented in passive indices.

2️⃣ AI CapEx Is Structurally Different This Time

With hyperscalers spending ~$600B annually, the infrastructure buildout has 10-year visibility due to land, power, and supply constraints. This isn’t a short tech cycle — it’s a physical industrial transformation.

3️⃣ Massive Dispersion = Massive Alpha Potential

AI will create both winners and losers. Hardware suppliers and infrastructure players may benefit from durable demand, while legacy SaaS and application companies risk disruption. Stock selection and disciplined process matter more than ever.

⏱️ Timestamped Chapters

00:00 – Introduction & Why This Conversation Matters

02:00 – $600B in AI CapEx: Where Is the Money Going?

04:00 – Why Industrial Tech Was Underinvested for 15 Years

07:00 – The Myth of Diversification in Passive AI Exposure

12:00 – Networking, Optical, Semi Cap Equipment: Hidden Winners

16:00 – SaaS Under Pressure: AI Disruption in Software

19:00 – Spear’s Mental Model for Navigating the AI Stack

22:00 – Space, Electrification & Defense as AI Enablers

31:00 – The Physical World Bottleneck: S-Curves vs J-Curves

33:00 – Dispersion, Alpha & Why Active Management Matters

48:00 – Behavioral Mistakes Investors Make in Tech Cycles

51:00 – What Could Break the AI Thesis?

54:00 – Closing Thoughts & SPEAR ETF (SPRX)

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