Episode Details

War fever doesn’t start with missiles; it starts with assumptions. We sat down with former CIA analyst Larry Johnson to test the most dangerous ones behind Washington’s Iran calculus: that indirect “mediation” is enough, that stockpiles can match modern salvos, and that regional partners will quietly keep their doors open no matter what gets said on TV. From the first minute, Larry pulls back the curtain on how real diplomacy should look—direct talks, Farsi speakers at the table, and negotiators who know Iran’s history—and why a shuttle through Oman won’t cut it when core security issues like enrichment and ballistic missiles are on the line.

We also run the numbers that too many skip. Patriot and THAAD batteries are not bottomless, and rare earth constraints slow production when demand spikes. If interceptors are spent at two per inbound, a single heavy night could wipe out years of output. That’s not a scare line; it’s a lesson traced across Ukraine’s skies. Fixed bases, carriers, and allies become targets when magazines run dry, which is why internal questions about accepting five-figure casualties in weeks—not years—are surfacing in Washington. Add in a telling move like a hospital ship edging “toward Greenland,” and you can read the logistics tea leaves.

Then there’s the politics. A viral claim that Israel holds a biblical deed from the Nile to the Euphrates sparked rare unity across Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf, threatening overflight and basing that an Iran strike would likely require. Larry explains how rhetoric can collapse strategy, and he flags the real tripwires to watch: embassy drawdowns and NOTAMs that close skies before bombs fall. Finally, we stress-test magical thinking against recent history—from Russia’s sustained strikes failing to topple Kyiv to RED SEA operations that couldn’t erase Houthi launch capacity. Iran is bigger, tougher, and better networked than either case suggests.

If you value hard analysis over slogans, hit play, share with a friend who follows foreign policy, and leave a review with your take: deal-making or sleepwalking toward disaster? Subscribe for more unvarnished conversations and help us keep this debate honest.

CHAPTERS:

• 0:00 Welcome Back And Stakes Set
• 1:43 Iran Talks And Kushner’s Role
• 3:24 What Washington Wants From Tehran
• 6:10 How Serious Diplomacy Should Look
• 9:20 Depleted Stockpiles And Patriot Math
• 12:15 Air Defense Limits And Casualties
• 15:05 Hospital Ship Signal And Readiness
• 18:00 Huckabee Clip And Regional Blowback
• 21:00 Jordan, Saudi Access And Constraints
• 23:20 Embassy Drawdowns And Attack Signals
• 26:00 Pollard, Leaks, And Double Standards
• 29:05 Zionism, Theology, And Policy Contradictions
• 32:20 Who Sways Trump And War Lessons
• 35:00 Ukraine, Yemen Benchmarks And Reality Check