Episode Details

#Bitcoin #Crypto #Investing

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X: https://x.com/moneyordebt

Website: https://stephenperrenod.substack.com/

In this episode, Stephen shares his journey from astrophysics and supercomputing into Bitcoin research and consulting. He explains why he believes Bitcoin is the first scientifically precise monetary standard in history and breaks down the power law model that has governed Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior.

The conversation dives deep into exponential vs. power law growth, why Bitcoin’s bubbles are shrinking over time, and why the traditional “four-year cycle” may be flawed. Stephen introduces log-periodic timing as a better framework for understanding Bitcoin’s long-term bubble structure, discusses gold comparisons, and explains how investors can think about portfolio allocation using the Kelly Criterion.

Stick around to the hear why the math proves bitcoin will succeed, and gain a deeper understanding of the fundamentals behind the long-term success of bitcoin

Timestamps:

0:00 Stephen's Background and Early Life

4:59 How Stephen Got Into Marketing

6:50 What Stephen Would Do If He Was Looking For A Job Today

8:56 Stephen's Mechanism For Forecasting Bitcoin Price

10:50 Agenda For Stephen's Presentation

12:26 Why Bitcoin Is A Scientifically Precise Monetary Standard

14:11 Why The Early 2010s Was The Perfect Time To Create Bitcoin

15:28 Autopoiesis And It's Relation to Bitcoin

18:54 How Bitcoin Follows The Power Law

25:32 Why Bitcoin Can't Be A Bubble

30:08 Modeling The Power Law

33:10 Why Use The Power Law To Model Bitcoin

39:33 Mapping Bitcoin Volatility Into the Power Law

44:44 The Math Behind Bitcoin Bubbles

49:16 How Stephen's Model Accounts For Macro Factors

51:39 Why Stephen's Model Gives A Simple Result

54:12 Why The 4-year Cycle Failed in 2025

57:27 Bitcoin vs. Gold

1:02:08 How Much of Your Portfolio Should Be in Bitcoin

1:10:41 Everyone Gets Bitcoin At The Price They Deserve?

1:14:49 Why Gold Had Been the Star of the Past Year

1:18:54 Would Stephen Currently Buy More Gold or More Bitcoin?

1:20:36 Stephen's Investments Pre-Bitcoin

1:22:27 What Michael Saylor Got Right

1:24:34 The One Thing Michael Saylor Got Wrong

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Intro Song:

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other form of advice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Proof of Thought Podcast (“PoT”) or its guests to buy or sell any securities, cryptocurrencies, or other financial instruments.Investing involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions.The views expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of PoT, its hosts, sponsors, or affiliates. PoT and its participants may hold positions in or receive compensation from companies, assets, or products mentioned.Po