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Interactive Brokers
Warm-Up
- Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my)
- Need a stock for CTP
- Hang on - Wild ride here
- Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!
- Shakeup in Dietville
Markets
- Massive moved during the week -
- Bitcoin clipped $60k before rebounding
- DJIA tops 50,000 for the first time
- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!
- CAT == 1,100 points on the DJIA in 2026
Superbowl and Superbowl ads
- Game review
- Any ad stick out?
- $10M per ad this year
- Half Time with Bad Bunny?
- Anthropic busting on OpenAi
Last Week!
- Massive moved - quick calc showed that about $1T was wiped from market caps in the sell-off, particularly in tech names.
- HOWEVER - Friday alone is estimated to have added $1.5T to market cap
AI Ripping Through
- Plenty of names getting cooked over AI announcements
- First it was the software companies
- Now there are names in legal and finance that got clocked
- Today - Altruist.ai can do tax planning and that hurt companies in financial space
Earnings Season Update
- Reporting so far: 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 results.
- Beat rate: 76% have topped EPS estimates (vs. 5-yr average: 78% (slightly lower) vs. 10-yr average: 76% (in line)
- Magnitude of beats (aggregate): earnings are 7.6% above estimates vs. 5-yr average: 7.7% (about the same) vs. 10-yr average: 7.0% (a bit better)
- Nothing great, like Goldilocks
Earnings Highlights
- Palantir (PLTR): Reported strong Q4 results early in the week , beating estimates with revenue ~$1.41B (vs. ~$1.33B expected) and EPS $0.25 (vs. $0.23). Guidance for 2026 was upbeat (~61% revenue growth). Shares rallied sharply initially (~7–11% post-earnings), but gave back s
