Episode Details

At its first meeting for 2026, the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 3.85%, as most economists expected.

That move officially ends the shortest and most modest rate-cutting cycle since the RBA began inflation targeting back in 1993.

So what does this really mean for property investors, home buyers, and Australia's housing markets?

That's what I'm going to unpack, along with Dr Andrew Wilson's latest housing market data for January.

Now, let me give you a quick spoiler alert.

Yes, this rate rise will take some heat out of buyer demand in the short term. But in my view, it's also creating a genuine window of opportunity for those who are finance-ready.

Despite what the headlines will tell you, I believe housing markets are going to keep rising through 2026, just as they did last year when interest rates were at similar levels. And that's because the real drivers of property prices aren't interest rates alone – they're the underlying structural forces, which I'll explain shortly.

Takeaways

• RBA reverses course to regain control over inflation, but a single hike is unlikely to alter the housing market balance. This marks the end of the shortest and most modest rate cutting cycle since the RBA started inflation targeting in 1993.
• The outlook for the cash rate remains somewhat clouded. Given the underlying supply and demand pressures in the Australian housing sector, it is unlikely that a single rate hike will substantially alter the market balance.
• January is typically a quiet month for property sales.
• Perth's housing market is showing strong growth compared to other regions.
• Unit prices in Brisbane have seen substantial increases over the past two years.
• The local economy plays a crucial role in housing market performance.
• There is a persistent low supply of properties in the market.
• First home buyer incentives are influencing market dynamics.

• Listen Now