Episode Details

Interview with
Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange
Nick Smart, Director & CEO of ValOre Metals

Recording date: 7th January 2026

Platinum group elements have emerged from years of undervaluation into what industry executives describe as a fundamental supply-demand inflection point. The second half of 2025 witnessed platinum prices nearly double, driven by structural changes across industrial, jewelry, and investment demand against severely constrained supply. For investors seeking precious metals exposure with distinct fundamentals from gold, the platinum story presents a compelling case rooted in geological scarcity, industrial necessity, and market imbalances forecast to persist through 2030.

The supply challenge stems from extreme geological concentration combined with economic realities. While platinum occurs in earth's crust at similar abundance to gold—a few parts per billion—concentrated economic deposits are far scarcer. Global primary platinum production totals just 6 million ounces annually versus 120-130 million ounces for gold. More critically, 90% of platinum reserves sit within South Africa's Bushveld Complex, where aging deep-level underground mines face rising costs and operational difficulties. Outside South Africa, platinum production occurs primarily as a mining byproduct, meaning supply cannot respond to price signals. As Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange notes, even prices ten times higher won't trigger meaningful supply responses given massive underinvestment and geopolitical constraints.

Demand dynamics have shifted dramatically across three sectors. Industrial demand is strengthening contrary to earlier electric vehicle projections, with 75% of new US vehicles remaining internal combustion engines while hybrids—which consume more platinum and palladium than conventional engines—represent the fastest-growing automotive segment globally. Major manufacturers like Ford and Volkswagen are shifting production lines toward hybrids due to superior profit margins and customer acceptance. Nick Smart, CEO of ValOre Metals and a 21-year Anglo American veteran, emphasizes this durability stems from infrastructure limitations and automotive economics.

The jewelry sector presents another growth vector as gold reaches twice platinum's price—a relationship inverted only in the past decade. Manufacturers and consumers in India and China are shifting to platinum for cost relief while maintaining luxury appeal, with platinum offering white gold substitution at less than half gold's cost. Investment demand, while currently small at roughly 1% of precious metals sales, is maturing rapidly. China has opened platinum hedging markets, creating what Gleason describes as "a three-way pull" between London shortages, US inventory builds, and new Chinese infrastructure.

Physical market stress signals are acute. Above-ground inventories have fallen below six months of supply—what Gleason characterizes as "totally unsustainable." London financing shortages have driven lease rates to 12-15% annualized, creating cascading effects across refineries, users, and producers. The entire above-ground platinum supply could be absorbed with just $6 billion in capital.

Looking forward, market forecasts project persistent deficits of approximately 700,000 ounces annually through 2030 against total production of 6 million ounces, even accounting for all known development projects. Ivanhoe's Platreef Mine represents the only recently commissioned PGE project, taking decades to reach its 300,000-ounce phase one capacity. Smart acknowledges the difficulty: "It's very difficult to see how that deficit gets bridged."

For investors, the investment thesis centers on structural supply-demand arithmetic rather than speculative narratives. The combination of geological concentration, years of underinvestment, resilient automotive demand, jewelry substitution, and emerging investment