Episode Details

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck Todd to break down what the numbers actually say about the U.S. economy—and why the headline optimism may be masking deeper problems. Zandi explains how upcoming tax refunds and delayed tax cuts will temporarily juice growth, even as that stimulus is entirely deficit-financed. Interest rate cuts are likely coming, but cautiously, and while AI stocks are soaring, the broader market is barely treading water. Beneath the surface, job creation has stalled, manufacturing jobs are shrinking under tariffs, and deportations aren’t translating into more employment for native-born workers as many expected.

The conversation widens to a fragile global outlook, with Trump-era protectionism accelerating deglobalization and reshaping trade, housing, and labor markets. Zandi details why college-educated workers are now seeing the sharpest rise in unemployment, how AI skills will define the next generation of jobs, and why renting often makes more sense than buying right now. Looking ahead to 2026, he warns of elevated geopolitical and financial-system risks, an AI-driven stock market that could be vulnerable to a correction, GDP growth likely under 3%, and a job market that may struggle to grow at all.

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Timeline:

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00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 What do the numbers say about the state of the economy?

02:00 Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts about to start showing up

02:45 Tax refunds will add juice to the economy

03:30 All the “juice” is deficit financed and will only be temporary

04:30 Interest rates cuts likely to be cautious but will continue

05:45 AI stocks on fire, rest of the stocks are just up slightly

07:30 The economy isn’t creating any jobs despite investment

08:15 Job creation flatlined after “Liberation Day”

09:30 Manufacturing has been losing jobs due to tariffs

10:45 Are deportations creating more jobs for native born workers?

11:30 Jobs normally taken by foreign born workers aren’t being filled

12:45 Companies aren’t laying off, they’re just not hiring new employees

14:00 Trade deficit reportedly down, but is that actually a good thing?

14:45 Imports of pharmaceuticals have collapsed due to tariffs

15:30 Tariffs haven’t actually addressed the trade deficit

17:00 Tariff revenue shows the stated tariff rates aren’t holding true

18:15 Will the K-shaped economy continue through 2026?

19:45 Economy is affecting different income groups wildly different

21:00 Partisans believe economy is better depending on who is president

22:15 How do you price in Trump taking Greenland & ending NATO?

23:00 Economies around the world are in a similar, fragile place like the U.S.

24:00 The U.S. is rapidly pulling away from the rest of the world

25:00 Trump’s protectionism has been contagious to other countries

26:15 The world is preparing for a deglobalization

28:15 China hasn’t really taken advantage of U.S. global retreat

29:00 Countries that embrace immigration are the most succe