Episode Details

Every year, Wall Street rolls out confident forecasts for where the S&P 500 will end the year—and every year those projections are treated as actionable insight. For 2026, analyst expectations cluster around modestly positive returns, even as valuations sit near historical extremes and macro risks continue to build. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why year-ahead market forecasts are largely an exercise in false precision. Instead of offering a price target with zero confidence, we walk through the key forces that are likely to shape markets in 2026—including stretched valuations, liquidity injections disguised as “reserve management,” the Federal Reserve leadership transition, midterm elections, fiscal uncertainty, AI-driven capital spending, tariffs, geopolitics, and rising sovereign debt risks. We also examine historical market behavior to provide perspective on drawdowns, winning streaks, and why valuations are a poor short-term timing tool but an excellent long-term risk signal. Finally, we discuss why flexibility, discipline, and risk management matter far more than guessing an index level twelve months in advance. If you are an investor trying to navigate uncertainty without relying on headlines or optimistic forecasts, this discussion provides the framework you need to think more clearly about markets in 2026. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Betting on Anything, Healthcare Subsidies, HSA's, & Housing Bans 8:15 - Roll-of in Markets 12:42 - Guessing at 2026 Markets 20:35 - Think About the Known; Consider the Unknown 22:59 - Quantitative Easing & Chart Crime 25:09 - The Powell Exit & Midterm Elections 28:21 - Will Europe Keep Dumping Money into US Markets? 29:55 - AI Infrastructure Boom & New Technologies 32:02 - Our Process for Managing Market Rotations 35:14 - SCOTUS' Tariff Ruling & Trump's Plan-B 37:10 - Return of the Yen Carry Trade 38:50 - Smart Money Has Already Considered the Risks 42:08 - Don't Get Too Comfortable with Narratives Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQA10SrDk3s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "2026 Forecast: Tis The Season For Wild Guesses" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-forecast-tis-the-season-for-wild-guesses/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Sector Rotation Quietly Begins," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6zc2wXLn5o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Open Chat Q&A: Markets, Earnings, Taxes & Portfolio Strategy," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGgxAtaZIOI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketUpdate #SectorRotation #StockMarketNews #EconomicData #MarketVolatility #MarketOutlook2026 #StockMarketRisk #InvestorDiscipline #FedPolicy #ValuationsMatter