Episode Details

Highlights

• We had a bump up in the KP with KP 4.5 last night.
• Coronal hole now Earth facing. Can expect a rise up in solar wind and possible G1 storming in addition to CME tap(s).
• Solar activity is up with 15 C class flares the highest was a 4.4 short-lived pop from 4334. 4334 and 4335 are now lead flare producers. The C 4.4 may have some Earth directed components of a CME.
• 5 active sunspot regions with sunspot complexity up; 2 beta, 1 alpha and now we have 4334 is beta gamma and 4336 is now BGD.
• Solar wind did rise up to 440 yesterday BZ go mostly SW and that’s when we saw the GM field conditions rise. Currently 380 with the BZ solidly NW.
• Geomagnetic field was 0-4.5 reaching KP 4.5 1:37 utc today, last night in eastern time zone, digestion may already be better from this movement. Currently KP2.
• Solar flare forecast, slightly up from yesterday X - 10%, M-45%, we may see that increase with the sunspot complexity increasing. Geomagnetic field conditions are KP 1-4 today.
• Schumann charts showed white/yellow saturation across the fundamental and harmonic bands, indicating high amplitude, impulsive energy injections rather than a steady-state resonance. This was followed by a clear post-event settling phase, suggesting the system discharged a significant amount of accumulated energy.

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