Episode Details

What does the Venezuela fallout mean for Canada, oil markets — and for investors trying to stay ahead of the noise? On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, we tackle the geopolitical shock head-on — and separate real risk from market overreaction.

Amber begins with veteran investor Frances Horodelski, setting the scene on Venezuela’s sudden return to the global spotlight. Frances breaks down why the sharp selloff in Canadian energy stocks may have been more about positioning than fundamentals. She explains how Canadian oil had already outperformed U.S. peers, why fears around Venezuelan oil supply may be overstated, and why infrastructure constraints, corruption, and pricing realities mean any meaningful production ramp will take years, not weeks. She also weighs in on USMCA/NAFTA renegotiations, Canada’s bargaining power with the U.S., the resilience of the Canadian dollar, and why investors can’t just “buy the energy ETF” anymore.

The conversation expands beyond oil to explore Bank of Canada policy, gold and gold miners, commodities, Canadian banks, and defensive sectors. Frances explains why banks, copper, and gold may be ahead of themselves, why utilities and healthcare could offer shelter, and why this environment increasingly looks like a stock picker’s market.

In the second half, Cole Smead of Smead Capital tackles the biggest question investors are asking: Does Venezuela change the global energy game? Cole argues the market is confusing headlines with fundamentals, explaining why time, capital, and physics still dominate oil markets. He outlines why fears around Canadian heavy oil may be misplaced, why WTI vs WCS spreads matter, and how potential pipeline developments could reshape long-term outcomes.

Cole also shares how he’s positioning portfolios amid volatility, why he’s leaning into Canadian heavy oil producers, avoiding short-term refinery hype, and “dreaming” where others can’t. He discusses ConocoPhillips (COP), Chevron (CVX), Canadian names like Cenovus, Canadian Natural Resources, Strathcona, Tourmaline, and Birchcliff, and why investor psychology creates opportunity when markets panic.

It’s a clear-eyed conversation about geopolitics, energy, and investor psychology — and a reminder that the market’s first reaction is rarely the final verdict.

Timestamps

00:00 Show intro
03:30 Looking at the Canadian energy patch pre and post Venezuela invasion
06:00 The oil making its way to the Gulf Coast is not a lot of oil 

07:00 It will take a very long time to get the oil out of Venezuela 

08:30 Is Canada’s bargaining power screwed?
11:00 Is Venezuela a domestic issue because it will lower oil prices?
12:30 What about Canadian banks in Latin America?
14:40 What does it mean for the gold price? 

16:30 Where can investors hide? 

18:00 What about other commodities?

20:20 The world changes when consequential people are in power
23:00 Cole Smead ‘this too will pass’, why Cole still likes Canadian energy
26:00 Pipeline pressure and supply and demand
30:45  What does it mean for U.S. energy?
34:30 What is the ideal tilt for a portfolio?
37:40 Cole is running toward Canadian heavy oil 

40:00 Time to sell or find a way to profit?
44:20 Could this mean more M&A in the Canadian energy patch?
49:00 Will this catalyze action around a pipeline?
53:15 What comes next around the world?
57:40 Is there a world where Canadian producers go to Venezuela?
59:30 Cole’s high-conviction ideas

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