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Crack The NFL Code Hawthorne Effect Avoid Delusion Of Grandeur Week 13-updated. fixed the beginninng
* The Hawthorne Effect can improve performance by 10 to 20%.
* The ESPC Podcast is a business meeting with specific outcomes.
* Josh has an MBA and a securities license.
* Clients worth $50 million and above seek good information.
* Business and financial concepts help predict outcomes.
* Consistent prediction of outcomes leads to monetization. Like Elon Musk states you get to the truth, then you consistently predict outcoms then from a business standpoint can logically monetize those outcomes
* The podcast ranks highly in sports and betting categories. 7th overall in the state florida and top 50 nationally per feedspot
* Monetizing outcomes is a primary goal of the podcast.
* but Top 10 Rules For Betting-Short Term Investing In NFL-CFB And College Basketball
* medium.com/@josuevizcay/top-10…ketball-bdc7d132490
* Learn From Mistakes “unexamined life is not worth living”
* “You learn more from losses than you do from wins”
* “An unexamined life is not worth living”
This year we are
The Problem
Dunning–Kruger Effect
* This is the best-known term.
* It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence, often because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own mistakes.
* It doesn’t necessarily involve delusions, but it explains why someone might think they’re much more skilled at decision-making than they really are.
* Discribe the problem
Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)
* Sometimes called the “better-than-average effect.”
* People consistently rate their own decision-making, intelligence, or skills as above average, even when objective measures show otherwise.
3.Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)
Delusional Disorder / Grandiosity (Clinical Context)
* When the overestimation of ability moves beyond bias and into fixed false beliefs that resist contrary evidence, it becomes clinical.
* In psychiatry, this would be described as grandiose delusions, a symptom sometimes seen in bipolar disorder or schizophrenia.
4. Describe the solution
* Analyzing game dynamics can lead to better outcomes.
* Takeaways
* Decision Science used by fortune 500 companies
* Continuous improvement is essential in sports betting.
* Return To the Mean
* Fundamenal analysis
* Understanding team management is crucial for predictions.
* Utilizing decision science enhances betting strategies.
* Analyzing game dynamics can lead to better outcomes.
* Long-term thinking is vital in sports betting.
* Statistical analysis helps predict game outcomes.
* As Robert Glazer writes “The concept of regression to the mean was first discovered by the statistician and sociologist Sir Francis Galton. As part of his research, Galton observed that tall parents tended to have children who were shorter than them, whereas short parents often had children who were taller than them.
* Based on this, Galton developed the principle of regression to the mean, which states that in any series with complex phenomena that are dependent on many variables, where chance is involved, extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more moderate ones. In other words, if something extremely unexpected happens, it is likely to be followed by something that’s more aligned with statistical projections or expectations.
* We have a tendency to overreact to results in the short term and use those outcomes to make long term decisions, ignoring the reality of regression to the mean. In particular, we tend to ignore the role of luck and timing when evaluating extreme early outcom
Published on 4 weeks ago