Episode Details

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• Walrus

The prediction market meta is piping hot and everyone wants a piece of the pie.

In this episode of Unchained, 10x Research founder Markus breaks down what the competition boils down to. Plus, will other platforms follow Polymarket's lead and launch a token?

He also walks through a “near certain” trade nestled in Polymarket and shares 10 strategies that can be used to trade prediction markets without an opinion. 

One key nugget: “It's the wisdom within the crowd.”

Guest:

• Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research

• Previous appearance on Unchained:

• How to Invest in This Bitcoin Downtrend: Bits + Bips

• Links

  Unchained:

• Paradigm Claims Polymarket Trading Figures Are Double Counted

• Polymarket Opens US App to Waitlisted Users

• Intercontinental Exchange to Invest $2 Billion in Polymarket

• Crypto.com and Kalshi Lead Prediction Market Coalition Setup

• Kalshi Hits $11B Valuation After $1B Raise: Report

Timestamps:

🚀 00:00 Introduction 

💡 3:07 Why Markus says prediction market adoption is still in its infancy

👀 6:23 Are speculators abandoning bitcoin for prediction markets?

🧏 8:10 How trading prediction markets differ from crypto markets

⚖️ 11:48 How Polymarket and Kalshi compare in strengths and weaknesses

⚡️ 15:12 Why Markus thinks Polymarket and Kalshi are likely to remain the dominant players 

📝 19:15 What traders should consider when choosing a prediction market platform 

💥 23:05 How the POLY Airdrop could give Polymarket an edge

⁉️ 26:39 Will other prediction markets launch a token?

💡 33:19 How risks in trading prediction markets differ from crypto markets

🧠 36:31 Markus walks through a “near certain” Bitcoin trade paying 63% annualized

🤯 39:58 Strategies to trade prediction markets without having an opinion

❕️ 51:48 Why Markus avoids “moon shot” trades

⚠️ 54:11 How to trade by finding “wisdom within the crowd”

🤺 1:00:17 How prediction markets enable hedging against real world outcomes

📃 1:02:34 Final thoughts on how traders should approach prediction markets

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