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BONUS: Drake Toll Predicts BYU to UPSET Texas Tech, Make College Football Playoff In Big 12 Title


Episode 1490


The Big 12 Championship rematch between the No. 11 BYU Cougars and the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders is college football's most compelling upset story this weekend. For BYU, the equation is stark: a win guarantees them the Big 12 title and an automatic berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff, validating their jump to the Power Four. Lose, and their impressive 11-win season is likely relegated to an at-large consolation prize, thanks to the committee's skepticism.

The history provides the challenge. Texas Tech dismantled the Cougars 29-7 in the regular season, dominating the line of scrimmage and neutralizing freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier while forcing three critical turnovers. To pull off the seismic upset in Arlington, BYU cannot simply show up—they need an entirely different, disciplined game plan, driven by controlled chaos and redemption.

The path to victory begins with protecting the football and exploiting Texas Tech's primary flaw: red-zone offense. While the Red Raiders boast a nationally elite defense, their scoring percentage inside the 20-yard line ranks outside the top 85. BYU’s defense, which showed surprising tenacity near their own goal line in the first matchup, must continue to force four-down stops and limit the Red Raiders to field goals. This defensive strategy is paramount to keeping the score low and preventing the game from getting out of hand.

On offense, coordinator Aaron Roderick must get Bachmeier going with his legs early, using the threat of the quarterback run to open up the passing game against Texas Tech’s blitz-heavy front. Crucially, running back LJ Martin needs a bounce-back performance to chew clock and keep the defense rested.

If Kalani Sitake's team executes this perfect storm of low scores and high turnover margins, the upset would send immediate shockwaves through the national landscape. A victory would transform a season defined by questions about their résumé into an unforgettable tale of postseason arrival and validate BYU’s place among the nation's elite.

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Published on 4 days, 21 hours ago






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