Episode Details

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This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by Adam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, for the most inside-Treasury Budget preview we’ve ever recorded.

With Rachel Reeves’ first Budget just days away, Adam explains how decisions really get made — the politics, pressure, fiscal rules, OBR scrutiny and the moments where things nearly go off the rails.

Meanwhile, markets have been wild:

• Bitcoin drops 35% from the highs

• Nvidia posts one of the biggest earnings beats in history

• The Fed cools December cut expectations

• Long gilts sell off on credibility worries

• And Rich… turns fully bullish

This Week’s Highlights

• 💥 Crypto Crash: Bitcoin down another 10%; record ETF outflows
• 📈 Nvidia Surge: A huge quarter steadies the NASDAQ
• 🏦 Fed Cuts on Hold: Shutdown delays key data
• 🇬🇧 Gilt Volatility: Income-tax U-turn sends yields 30bp higher
• ⚡ AI Power Rush: 10 new US nuclear reactors approved
• 🥊 Portfolio Debate: Rich buys the dip; Spice agrees; CJ isn’t sure
• 🎩 Fantasy Budget: Adam, CJ, Spice & Rich pitch their own Budgets

Special Guest - Adam Smith

Adam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, reveals the real mechanics behind the Budget:

📊 The Scorecard — every tax & spend decision in one spreadsheet

🧮 Fiscal Rules — how they’re bent, stretched and stress-tested

🏛️ OBR Checks — what survives scrutiny (and what doesn’t)

🔥 Mini-Budget Lessons — why credibility beats headlines

🔮 Next Week’s Budget — freezes, pension tweaks, revenue raisers

Plus: the late-night calls, panic moments and political chaos behind every fiscal event.

Portfolio Snapshot:

Weekly performance: – 2.6%

Total return since inception: +7.20%

Top Performers:

• 🥇 iShares MSCI India ETF – +1.07%
• 🥈 Cash – +0.08%
• 🥉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF – –0.13%

Underperformers:

• 🪙 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain ETF – –14.74%
• 🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF – – 4.94%
• 🇺🇸 iShares Russell 2000 ETF – – 4.27%

Actions Taken:

• Adding to portfolio:
• +2.5% NASDAQ 100
• +2.5% VanEck Crypto ETF

What You’ll Learn

How Budgets are really built

• Why credibility matters more than the policy
• Which tax levers actually raise money
• What drives crypto deleveraging
• Why AI infrastructure is a new macro theme
• How markets price Budget moves instantly
• Why too much cash destroys long-term returns

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides

View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.com

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