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November Vancouver Real Estate Update - Pricing Falling, Budget Fallout, Land Claim Shock
Episode 302
Vancouver home prices just dropped for the seventh straight month, and the November stats paint a clear picture: momentum is fading, listings remain high, and the winter slowdown is now colliding with a wave of economic and policy turbulence. In this week’s episode, we break down everything from the federal budget fallout to land title uncertainty in B.C., and what all of it means for prices heading into 2026.
Let’s start with Ottawa. The latest federal budget was pitched as a housing plan, but for many Canadians dreaming of ownership, it landed more like a broken promise. Funding for the Build Canada Homes program was cut nearly in half, the MURB tax incentive was quietly shelved, and the much-hyped “development charge relief” was watered down.
Instead, the lion’s share of new spending targets rentals and supportive housing — not ownership. Worse, the government has committed to running the largest deficit in Canadian history over the next five years. With Ottawa already paying $55 billion annually just in interest, that figure could easily double if rates stay higher for longer. For context, in the 1990s, when interest payments hit 33% of total revenue, the government faced a full-blown fiscal crisis. Today we’re at 10%, but trending up — and if that number hits 20% or more, markets, rating agencies, and mortgage rates will all start reacting. The key takeaway: Canada isn’t in crisis yet, but it’s walking a thinner line than most realize.
Meanwhile, jobs data surprised to the upside, with 67,000 positions added in October — nearly all of them part-time. Private sector hiring picked up for the first time in months, but construction jobs fell again, particularly in B.C., where the slowdown in new builds is clearly visible. In Metro Vancouver, employment dipped 0.3%, and the unemployment rate edged up to 6.3%. Economists now expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady into the new year. It’s a signal of cautious stability — the economy isn’t collapsing, but it’s far from thriving.
And then there’s the land claim shock. A recent B.C. Supreme Court ruling recognized Aboriginal title for the Cowichan Tribes over a section of southeast Richmond — an area including roughly 150 private parcels — and struck down parts of the law that made land titles “indefeasible.” The decision, now on appeal, effectively allows two forms of ownership to co-exist on the same land — something that no lender or insurer can practically underwrite.
And finally, the November housing stats. Sales rose 21% month-over-month to 2,257 — the second-strongest month of 2025 — but still sit 14% below last year and 14.5% under the 10-year average. Inventory, at 15,797 active listings, is up 13% year-over-year and sits 36% above the decade norm. The sales-to-active ratio now rests at 14%. Detached homes sit at 11%, townhomes at 19%, and condos at 16%. The HPI benchmark price dropped again, down 0.8% month-over-month and 5.1% from the March peak to $1,132,500 — the lowest level since March 2023.
By the end of this episode, you’ll understand where prices are heading next, how the budget’s deficit math could affect mortgage rates, and why land titles — not just listings — are suddenly the biggest wildcard in B.C. real estate.
Foreclosures Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feD5v2ByQQc&t=5s
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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA
604.809.0834
Ryan Dash PREC
778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com
Published on 12 hours ago